Analysis on Current Profits on Nylon 6 Filament Yarn Market

Nylon 6 filament yarn market experienced a wave of upward movement in H2, 2010 and NFY plants widely enjoyed lucrative profits since Sep. The sharp increase in Nov lifted up NFY profits to another stage. NFY plants purchased large amount of feedstock when prices were favorable, then due to power ration, the feedstock inventory in NFY plants kept ample. Big plants mainly have more than 2-month feedstock inventory and small plants have about one month. In Oct-Nov, NFY plants scarcely purchased feedstock. Thus based on spot feedstock and feedstock prices in one and half a month ago, take FDY as an example, we analyzed in detail the profits of NFY plants in recent months. Thus we can see from the charts, NFY plants enjoyed lucrative profits since Sep. In the second week of Nov, NFY plants cumulatively raised offers by 3000yuan/mt. FDY trading prices ticked up by about 2500yuan/mt and POY/DTY up by 1500-2000yuan/mt while chips only inched up by 1000yuan/mt. Thus based on spot feedstock, FDY profits reached about 3000yuan/mt, if based on stocks 1.5 month ago, profits reached surprisingly 4500-5000yuan/mt. But profits of DTY and POY were about 1000yuan/mt lower due to fewer feedstock inventory and smaller price increase. The high prices weighed on downstream textile plants and spurred a wait-and-see mood. Besides, chips gained a small increase than NFY thus NFY prices lacked further upward momentum and suffered downstream adjustment pressure. Under uncertain macro environment, approaching slack season and declining downstream O/R, NFY plants expressed concerns on market risks. Currently NFY plants got product orders lasting into mid Dec, some into next year. Supported by orders, product inventory will keep low but prices are unlikely to head up further. But if inventory pressure or capital pressure emerges in Dec, some plants may revise prices down, which could start an overall downtrend.   source:CCFGroup.com