More monthly deficits 'likely'

During the first two months of this year, imports of iron ore jumped by 22.6 percent to 120 million tons and soybean imports grew by 6.1 percent to 7.45 million tons, year-on-year. But their prices, on average per ton, surged during this period by 62.6 percent for iron ore and 22.7 percent for soybean.

"As commodity prices rise, it is likely we will see more deficits in the months ahead," said Zhang Xiaoji, senior researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council.

The Ministry of Commerce has set a target this year to expand imports and stabilize exports.

China's trade surplus decreased 34 percent to $196.1 billion in 2009, and last year, the surplus further fell by 6.4 percent, to $183.1 billion.

Li Daokui, a central bank adviser, predicted on Thursday that the surplus will fall to $150 billion in 2011 and the ratio of surplus to GDP will drop to less than 1 percent in one to two years, from 3.1 percent in 2010.

Dong Xian'an, chief economist at Peking First Advisory, a private consultancy, predicted the trade deficit will last for "another two months, thanks to increased purchasing by the government of a wide range of goods, including high-tech equipment, aerospace and agricultural goods, since December."

"The monthly deficit makes it possible for China to slow its currency appreciation," said Dong.

Since June's foreign exchange rate reform, the yuan has gained 3.5 percent against the dollar. But some countries, including the US, continue to demand a faster rate of appreciation.

The US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reiterated on March 3 that the yuan is "substantially undervalued", putting other countries at a competitive disadvantage.