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2011-6-15
As a result of the reduction in 2010/11 exports, U.S. ending stocks were increased to 2.25 million bales but are still 700,000 bales below the beginning level and the lowest since the mid-1920s; the stocks-to-use ratio is also near historic lows at 12 percent. For 2011/12, ending stocks remain projected at 2.5 million bales, up slightly from the current season. The stocks-to-use ratio rises to 15 percent but remains the second lowest since the 1995 season.
Based on the latest supply and demand estimates, the forecast for the 2011/12 U.S. average farm price is projected to range between 95 and 115 cents per pound, with the midpoint of this range a record. The comparable price for 2010/11 is estimated between 81 and 83 cents per pound, following a 62.9 cent farm price for 2009/10.
U.S. Cotton Textile Trade
U.S. cotton textile trade during the first quarter of 2011 was similar to that of a year earlier. During January-March 2011, cotton product imports approached 2.1 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, slightly below the amount imported in the corresponding period of 2010. Meanwhile, cotton textile and apparel exports for the first 3 months of 2011 were slightly above a year earlier at 468 million pounds.
As a result, the cotton product trade deficit for first-quarter 2011 was 1.6 billion pounds, compared with 1.7 billion for the comparable period in 2010. Cotton products continue to account for the largest share of the total fiber product deficit. Although 2011 U.S. cotton product imports thus far were similar to a year ago, the leading suppliers’ share declined as the share from a number of other countries grew.
In fact, only one of the top five countries Bangladesh indicated a growth in its share from a year earlier. During the first 3 months of 2011, Bangladesh’s share of total U.S. imports rose about 1 percentage point to 7.4 percent. In contrast, the share for China—the single largest source for U.S. cotton products declined more than 2 percentage points to 28 percent. Although the shares for the other leading suppliers were lower than a year ago, the reductions were relatively small.
U.S. cotton product exports are more concentrated than imports, but they too saw a smaller share going to the leading destinations. During January-March 2011, the top five countries accounted for 84 percent of the total, compared with 85 percent a year earlier. Honduras and Mexico the top two destinations accounted for about 57 percent of the total U.S. cotton product exports, down from 61 percent during the first quarter of 2010.
Source:USDA
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