The Rupp Report: The Ongoing Cotton Thriller

2011-6-24

For many months now, the Rupp Report has informed its readers about the volatile development in the global cotton markets and cotton prices. As everybody in the trade knows, these prices are causing a lot of problems for many countries that have a strong dependence on cotton.

At several exhibitions and meetings over the past few months, subscribers and readers from all over the world have expressed their wish to be informed frequently about the development of the cotton markets and its prices, especially in these critical times. So here are the developments of the past few weeks since the last Rupp Report about cotton in May 2011 (See " The Rupp Report: Rollercoaster Cotton," www. TextileWorld.com, May 10, 2011). As usual, these cotton reflections are based on various sources, mainly from the British traders Plexus Cotton Ltd., but also from organizations such as the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in Washington and the Bremen Cotton Exchange in Germany.

Two Different Markets
On May 26, Plexus reported: "NY futures closed again mixed this week, but this time it was July that dropped 462 points to close at 151.03 cents, while December rallied 838 points to close at 127.57 cents.

"After the July/Dec inversion grew from less than 21 cents to over 38 cents a week ago, it has once again started to come in, closing today at less than 24 cents."

As Plexus noted: "It seems as if we were dealing with two different markets at the moment! On the one hand there is current crop ..., with delays, cancellations and high-priced inventories .... On the other hand there is new crop, which is getting a lot of support due to the uncertainty in some key growing areas after a less than ideal start.

Furthermore, Plexus reported, US export cancellations of 62,300 running bales more than offset new sales of 29,300 bales for current crop and 21,800 bales for next marketing year, providing an impression that the markets are calming down. In addition, there was a slowdown in the shipments of 285,700 running bales. So the question became apparent: "How many of the outstanding 3.1 million bales in commitments will ultimately be exported by the end of July [from the United States]?"