World cotton consumption may be constrained on dull economic conditions

Clear and bright weather has been reported from all cotton areas of Sindh and Punjab provinces during the last week which prompted matured cotton bolls to open.

One field report said that fields look white due to wide spread opening of bolls which accelerated picking process and also seed-cotton arrivals in to ginneries and market places (Mandi) especially in Punjab where cotton crop is reported to be in good to excellent form. The idea of a bumper cotton crop in Punjab is getting stronger and stronger day by day and most of the crop estimates now converge between 10.5 and 11.0 million bales.

Sindh province may yield 2.5 million bales estimating total national crop between 13.0 and 13.5 million 170-kg bales. The fortnightly cotton arrival figures of first fortnight of October month are due today and total seed-cotton arrivals by 15th October-11, may be estimated between 4.0 and 4.2 million bales.

The problem of cotton quality especially in Sindh province except Upper Sindh comprising of Sukkur and Ghotki districts may remain a permanent headache for the buyers during whole cotton season. Regarding cotton quality in Punjab, reports indicate that colour of cotton has not as yet improved to the level of 72-74 percent Rd which is generally required in export.

However, persistent sunshine in Punjab would improve the colour of cotton. Also Micronaire values are mostly reported high up to 5.2 which is undesirable. High Mic values may come down below 5.0 level hopefully in next fortnight. The domestic spinners appear worried about serious quality problem in Sindh cotton, which may force them to buy high quality cotton from other countries. Pakistan's domestic cotton consumption in this season is estimated around 13.5 million bales.

This season, on national level, we may be producing 30-40 percent cotton below average quality due to damage by heavy rains and flood specially in Sindh where 60-70 percent cotton may be below average quality. Local spinners appear prepared to face this quality problem which would ultimately affect quality of yarn, cloth and end-products accordingly. As a matter of fact, lint cotton having specification of Middling Grade, Staple length 1-3/32 to 1-1/18, Mic G-5 and 28-30 Gpt is in high demand in most of the cotton consuming countries in Asia. Pakistan's most popular Type 1503 with fibre specifications of staple 1-3/32 - 1-1/8, G-5 and GPT 28-30 is in high demand in Bangladesh which can comfortably spin 32-36 count yarn with good yarn strength. As such, Bangladeshi spinners appear reluctant in buying cotton from Pakistan fearing mixing of low quality cotton.

This season, India is producing a record high crop of 35.5 million 170-kg bales with 8 to 10 million bales surplus to their requirements and these surplus bales would mostly be exported to India's neighbouring countries viz: China, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Indian's most popular variety Shanke-6 has very good demand in these countries and is found to be competitive and viable in price and also logistically. Monetary strains and poor economic conditions are restricting cotton activities in Bangladesh.