Global : Sharp Recovery in World Cotton Production Predicted

In its first world estimates for the 2003/2004 (August/July) season, Cotton Outlook foresees that farmers will return land to cotton in view of the recovery in prices and that, given better yields, cotton production could expand by nine percent compared with 2002/2003, to reach 20,672,000 tonnes.

The main increases are expected in China and the Indian subcontinent. No significant change is anticipated, based on indications of farmers’ planting intentions, in the United States. A strong recovery from this season’s drought-depressed level in Australia will be foreseeable only if adequate rainfall is forthcoming before the next planting campaign, which is still some months away.

World raw cotton consumption is expected to grow by slightly over one percent in 2003/2004. Like production, the gains will probably be concentrated in China and the Indian subcontinent, together with Turkey and recipients of continued inward investment, such as Vietnam. Several South East Asian consuming countries may face increasing difficulty, in face of sustained Chinese competition in textile export markets, and the contraction of the primary sector in Europe and the United States seems set to continue.

World stocks will fall by over 2,000,000 tonnes during 2002/2003 and our initial forecasts indicate that a decline of a further 600,000 tonnes can be anticipated during 2003/2004.