Global Cotton Production and Consumption to Expand in 2011/12

World Cotton Production Forecast at Record High in 2011/12

World cotton production in 2011/12 is forecast at 124.7 million bales, up 9 percent from the previous year, as producers respond to a strong market price for the fiber. If realized, the 2011/12 crop will be biggest on record and the third consecutive annual production increase. Global harvested area is forecast at nearly 36.0 million hectares in 2011/12, a 7-percent increase from a year ago. Global yields in 2011/12 are forecast to increase 2 percent from the preceding year, to 755 kg/ha. Substantial production increases are forecast for China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Mexico, which together are expected to account for at least 80 percent of the crop increase.

China´s 2011/12 crop is forecast at 33.0 million bales, up 8 percent from the previous year. Despite farm labor constraints, high input costs, and more favorable Government support for grains, producers in China are expected to respond to prevailing strong cotton prices which remain above the levels obtained a year ago. China´s harvested cotton area in 2011/12 is forecast to expand 7 percent to 5.5 million hectares from a year ago and the yield is forecast at 1,306 kg/ha. India´s

2011/12 production is forecast at 27.0 million bales, a 13-percent increase from a year earlier and the highest crop on record, on the expectation of normal monsoon conditions. India´s 2011/12 cotton area and yield are forecast to increase 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively, to 12.0 million hectares and 490 kg/ha from a year ago. Pakistan is forecast to produce 10.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 18 percent from the previous year in response to high market prices for the fiber and an expected recovery from last year´s flooding. Area and yield in Pakistan are forecast at 3.3 million hectares and 680 kg/ha, up 14 percent and 4 percent, respectively, from a year earlier. Growers in Pakistan are expected to continue the increased use of Bt seed and better fertilizers in 2011/12. Turkey and Mexico are forecast to produce 2.8 million bales and 1.0 million bales in 2011/12, representing an increase of 33 percent and 46 percent, respectively, from the previous year.