Global Cotton Production and Consumption to Expand in 2011/12

Australia´s 2011/12 crop is forecast at 4.25 million bales, a 3-percent decline from a year earlier. Area and yield are forecast at 525,000 hectares and 1,763 kg/ha, down 75,000 hectares (13 percent) and up 166 kg/ha (10 percent) from the preceding year. Brazil is forecast to produce 9.3 million bales in 2011/12, unchanged from the previous year´s crop estimate. Harvested area in Brazil is forecast at a record 1.4 million hectares, up 1 percent from a year earlier and the yield is forecast at 1,446 kg/ha. In the United States, 2011/12 production is forecast at 18.0 million bales, down 100,000 bales (0.6 percent) from a year ago. Harvested area and yield in the United States are forecast at 4.4 million hectares and 897 kg/ha, representing a 1-percent area expansion and a 1-percent yield decline from the previous year.

The African Franc Zone (AFZ) is forecast to produce nearly 3.0 million bales in 2011/12, up 30 percent from a year ago. Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali (the C-4 countries) are forecast to produce 450,000 bales, 900,000 bales, 115,000 bales and 575,000 bales, respectively, together accounting for 68 percent of the African Franc Zone´s 2011/12 crop. Area harvested in Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali is forecast to increase 22 percent, 25 percent, 15 percent, and 25 percent to 220,000 hectares, 500,000 hectares, 115,000 hectares, and 325,000 hectares, respectively, in 2011/12.

World Cotton Trade to Rise in 2011/12

World 2011/12 cotton trade is forecast at 39.9 million bales, up 8 percent from a year ago. Exports in the 2011 marketing year are expected to grow in Australia and Brazil. Exports in India are forecast to remain similar to last season, while U.S. exports are projected lower (fig. 3). Australia is forecast to export 4.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 43 percent from a year ago. Brazil´s 2011/12 exports are forecast to increase 125 percent to a record 4.5 million bales from the previous year due to rising output and foreign demand for the country´s fiber. India is forecast to export 4.8 million bales in 2011/12, unchanged from the trade volume in the preceding year as authorities maintain export restrictions on the fiber. The United States is forecast to export 13.5 million bales in 2011/12, a 13-percent decline from a year ago. Exports from the African Franc Zone are forecast at 2.6 million bales, up 25 percent from the previous year. Burkina Faso, the leading exporter in the region, is forecast to export 825,000 bales in 2011/12, up 24 percent from the previous year.