Global Cotton Production and Consumption to Expand in 2011/12

Cotton imports in several major importing countries are expected to rebound in 2011/12. Bangladesh, the world´s second-largest cotton importer, is forecast to import 4.0 million bales in 2011/12, a 4-percent increase from a year ago. China, the world´s leading cotton importer, is forecast to import 16.0 million bales, up 19 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. Imports in Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey are forecast to increase 8 percent, 10 percent, and 3 percent to 1.95 million bales, 1.1 million bales, and 3.5 million bales, respectively, from 2010/11. Pakistan´s 2011/12 imports are forecast to decline 7 percent from the preceding year.

World Cotton Consumption to Rebound in 2011/12

Global mill use in 2011/12 is forecast to rise 2.6 percent from a year earlier, slightly above the long-run average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent. This would bring world consumption to 119.5 million bales, its largest since the global mill use collapse in 2008/09. The global economy is expected to continue growing strongly in 2011 and 2012 as emerging markets maintain GDP growth in excess of 6.0 percent. The International Monetary Fund´s April outlook was for global GDP growth of at least 4.4 percent in both years, exceeding the 3.6 percent average rate over the last 40 years. China´s 2012 GDP forecast, which remains robust at 9.5 percent, is expected to translate into strong domestic demand by the world´s top mill user. In the United States, the largest source of household demand for cotton products, the economic expansion that began in 2010 is expected to continue, with GDP growth approaching 3.0 percent. Income growth prospects are more mixed for the European Union and Japan—but remain positive—and India´s economy is expected to continue growing at more than 8 percent annually.