Global Cotton Production and Consumption to Expand in 2011/12

However, the global increase in cotton consumption is expected to be tempered by relatively high prices for cotton. After a significant jump in 2010/11, cotton prices are expected to fall in 2011/12, but are still expected to be about 70 percent higher than the prices of 2 years earlier. Polyester prices have risen as well during this time, but not to the same extent. The result has been a slowdown in total world fiber demand and slippage in cotton´s share of world fiber consumption. A few years ago—2003/04 through 2006/07—world income gains in the 4-5 percent range were associated with annual cotton consumption increases averaging 6 percent annually. With cotton prices now higher both in absolute terms and relative to competing fibers, global cotton consumption in 2011/12 is expected to grow only slightly more than its long-term average rate.

India´s 2011/12 cotton consumption is forecast at a record 21.5 million bales, an increase of 2.4 percent from a year ago. Except in 2008/09 when the global financial crisis took a toll, India´s mill use has increased each year in the past decade. Pakistan´s 2011/12 is forecast to increase 5 percent to 10.75 million bales from the preceding year. Consumption in Turkey and the United States is forecast at 6.1 million bales and 3.8 million bales, up 3.4 percent in Turkey and unchanged in the United States from the previous year. If realized, the global share of consumption in India, Pakistan, Turkey, and the United States will be 18 percent, 9 percent, 5 percent, and 3 percent, respectively.

Global 2011/12 ending stocks are forecast at 47.9 million bales, up 13 percent from the previous year. Global stocks declined for four consecutive seasons as world consumption outpaced world production. However, production is expected to exceed consumption in 2011/12 in response to record prices in 2010/11. Stocks are forecast to increase in nearly all cotton producing and consuming countries, with the largest increases projected for India (1.2 million bales), China (950,000), the United States (750,000), Pakistan (525,000), and Brazil (450,000). Rising global stocks resulting from a strong output response are expected to temper the world market price for the fiber.